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The Global Economic Impact of COVID-19

Our weekly update on the global economic impact COVID-19 has had on GDP, and provide their base, good and bad scenarios.

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US: Updating our forecast as the COVID-19 outbreak matures

  • Social distancing successfully slowed the spread of COVID-19, but the US economy faces a long road to recovery

  • We expect additional monetary and fiscal support from the Fed and Congress but at a slower pace relative to the early days of the pandemic

Fireside chat - What does the US Treasury Foreign Exchange report mean for FX markets?

  • Quick background on the UST FX report – published twice a year and it provides a framework for the US to evaluate the currency practices of major trading partners

  • With the aim to actively dismantle unfair barriers to trade and achieve fairer and more reciprocal trade with partners

Upturn in global IT cycle and the Japanese economy

  • Attention is focusing on the global IT cycle following the launch of commercial 5G services

  • Global semiconductor sales bottomed out in 2019 H1 and recovered in the summer

Fireside chat - How are Asia's Emerging Markets supporting the bottom of the pyramid?

  • Which countries standout in the region as having a large population of the poor and vulnerable?

  • How much would be the fiscal costs of providing these sectors adequate support and social assistance during the lockdowns?

  • What are the implications on fiscal deficits and sovereign credit ratings?

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